Note: this rant consists mostly of my speculation and half-remembered articles read months ago. If it becomes incoherent or jumpy at times it's because I was thinking too many thoughts at once.
Many people think that Microsoft's entry into the console wars is just another pathetic Microsoft attempt to make more money. Still, this area of marketing is really outside Microsoft's strong areas. Much of Microsoft's money comes from the business side of the computer industry. Server software, office software, things like that are Microsoft's strongest areas. If you look at Microsoft's gaming departments before the Xbox, it seems like they were added as an afterthought. Their game controllers are of decent quality, but not really something exceptional. Their games, for the most part, pale in comparison to the software provided by other companies. Why then is Microsoft entering the hit or miss world of consoles? Why is Microsoft planning on spending half a billion dollars on promotion of a product in an area that they never devoted much prior attention to? The answer is simple. They future of computing, music, movies, and internet is at stake.
This may seem like a drastic statement considering that at present, video game systems are just beginning to gain capabilities like internet access, but consoles and PCs will in the next 10 years fight a battle that will affect every media and entertainment company in the world.
To understand why I put so much in what seems like a simply grab at the public's money, we need to look at Sony, its past, its future plans, and the history of the computer industry.
The original Playstation's incredible success was a fluke. All the factors simply fell into place and Sony raked in millions. Naturally, Sony would continue in the arena with a next generation entry. What most people do not realize is that when Sony planned its next generation console, it was not truly thinking about another game machine success, it was thinking about a proprietary gambit the likes of which they had never made before.
Quick history lesson: many years ago a man made a statement that later became known as Moore's Law. Moore's law states that the number of transistors on the main processor of a computer will double every 18 months. This law has basically held true for the computer industry for quite some time. The side affect of this is that the speed of computers will double about every two years. The speed of the computer being limited by more than just the main processor. consoles have traditionally run on a five year gap. This means in the 5 years since the last console was released, the speed of computers will have doubled twice. To stay competitive, this means that consoles need to be more than twice as powerful as a PC to get the most out of it's 5 years. In the days of Nintendo and Super Nintendo this was easy. However, computers matched and exceeded the Playstation after only three years of its life span.
History lesson 2: the PC has proven itself the most flexible thing mankind has ever created. It can perform the functions on many other devices with a simple bit of software and sometimes a little hardware. The PC will, if trends continue, absorb every other electronic device in the household. TV, stereo, alarm clock, these things will all be absorbed by the PC at some point. For those of you who say, but a TV is so simple, why stick it on a complicated computer? Mainly because the computer will eventually reach the point where it it very simple, and never off. Simply turn on the Monitor output and select you internet streamed channel.
It may seem like I am speculating on future technology, but that is what companies are developing today, so they will try to market it to us in the future, and we, like the idiots we are will buy them. Do you know who is one of the biggest investors in internet TV? Sony. Why? Because it is part of Sony's proprietary gambit.
Sony released the PS2 in 2000 in Japan. It features a main processor called the "Emotion Engine" that is very advanced. When asked why it was so hard to program for, Sony said it was going in a different direction than the industry. Despite Sony touting it as the greatest technological achievement in mankind's history, the PS2 lacks some important things such as broadband and HDTV support. While neither of these items are in any way prevalent, in three years they will be quite common. Why did Sony leave them out? Because the PS2's life span is only three years. Sony plans to realease the PS3 in 2002.
Sony knows that it will lose the game war to the PC if it doesn't do something drastic. The dractic thing Sony is doing is creating a new computer architecture, and giving everyone a reason to use it. You can bet the PS3 will play PS2 and PS1 games. And I'm fairly certain that the PS3's main processor will be very similar to the PS2's. Like the similarity between a Pentium 2 and a Pentium 3. That is the only way Sony would be able to get game makers to sign on with systems that change every three years. That each one is backwards compatible and and evolutionary step above the previous one.
Now, you may be wondering, how could Sony beat Microsoft and the PC with proprietary systems when Apple couldn't? Sony has two advantages, price and functionality. There are many good bits of software for Macs; things like art and music software. These don't carry much weight in the world of industry, however, which is where Apple lost the computer war. Companies want all their systems on the same wavelength so they have to choose either Macs or PCs. For the most part, industry chooses PCs. Then, when the working parents gave in to their whiny kids and buy a computer, they get what they were used to, PCs. (Note: I'm ignoring many dynamics that occured at the start of the industry prior to 1995, I'm really talking about what is going on today, and why Apple is never going to dominate the market.) Sony will never win the industry war, so it must win in the domestic market. To do that, Sony has to beat the PC in the one area of computers that is not impacted by industry. That area is games.
Sony sees a lot more at stake in this war than just its console. Remember my list of all those things the PC will absorb? Guess who makes a version of all of them? Just try and think of a type of electronic device that Sony does not make. Is it in Sony's interest to lose all of these things to the PC? Of course not. So Sony has to replace the PC with their own product. Sony, of all the companies in the world, has the industrial clout to make many different electronic devices work together. It's easy to come up with an interfacing standard when you make all of the things to be interfaced. Sony has admitted that it wants the Playstation series to be a convergence of media technology. A convergence of Sony media technology.
What do I mean by that last statement? Sony hopes to control the media standards of the future. If creating media means doing it the Sony way or not doing it, Sony can rake in big bucks selling rights to this and that company. They've tried it before, just look at VHS vs. Beta, the Mini Disk, or the super audio CD. Sony want to control every aspect of our entertainment top to bottom. Like the DVD consortium, only for all kinds of media. They have the electronics, they have the music studios, they have the film studios, they have every thing they need to provide you with every form of entertainment possible. Sony truely hopes to cover all your entertainment needs, and the Playstation is the platform that will give them the power to do it.
Ironically enough, the only company that can save us from being swallowed by Sony is Microsoft. Nintendo's Gamecube is going to be cool, but it lacks the flexibility of the PS2 and will not compete to replace the PC. Microsoft's Xbox is a truely remarkable system. The very finest in computer technology in a game console. Microsoft realizes that Sony is attacking the home PC, and hopes to head them off at the pass.
People can say what they want about Microsft, but the fact is that they'll buy the system with the best games. Microsoft seems to realize this and has gone to great lengths to get developers on board.
The last point I want to make is that Microsoft winning over Sony is a better thing. Microsoft cannot exert nearly the industrial clout that Sony can, and while Sony products are usually good, have one company with that much power is far too dangerous.